Guelph bus ridership is likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels for a few years, as the reduction in ridership currently reduces monthly ridership by approximately 40% to 50%.

Robin Gerus, general manager of Guelph Transit, said that in his view, it may take three to five years for the number of passengers to return to the level before COVID-19 caused serious damage to passengers.

"Some of these struggles may have been around for a long time," Gerus said.

Guelph Transit data shows that due to the pandemic, the number of passengers reported in 2020 was 3,409,311, compared with 7,201,308 in 2019.

Gerus cited the hybrid model adopted by some companies, where employers let employees work in shifts between the office and working at home. He said he expects this and other models to emerge, which will continue to affect passenger levels.

Data provided by Guelph Transit's automatic passenger counter shows that when students from the University of Guelph return in late summer, the number of passengers is stimulated. The device is used to count the number of passengers when they board the bus.

Before the pandemic, the Guelph bus had a monthly ridership of just under 568,000, compared to 719,538 riders in January 2020.

This number dropped sharply in 2021. The number of rides in January of this year was 184,228, a decrease of 535,355.

The data shows that the first three months of 2021 are much lower than the figures for 2020, and the number of riders has decreased by 1,268,724.

When the pandemic hits and there are a lot of shutdowns, passenger traffic in 2020 hit a low of 106,535 in April, and rebounded slightly for the rest of the year.

In 2021, the number of passengers began to increase, with thousands of rides every month.

"By 2021, the number of passengers will continue to remain low because everyone stays at home and then low. When we start to make the decision to bring college students back to campus, September is a pretty good month for us," Gerus said.

The data shows that the number of passengers increased sharply in September, which is related to the return of college students, because Guelph Transit reported 317,824 passengers per month, an increase of 108,529 people from September 2020.

As of October 23, the monthly passenger volume continued to increase, with an increase of 34,510 passengers compared to October 2020.

"Returning the university to campus is a big positive factor for us. It helped us regain some passengers. As you can imagine, when COVID emerged, for most of 2020, our Passenger numbers are struggling, and at some point, we will encounter 50% to 70% of the situation at some point," Gerus said.

Gerus said that when talking to his operator, they confirmed to him that they began to see the load on the buses increase almost every day. 

In 2020, Guelph Transit reported 3,490,311 passengers. As of the data provided on October 23, Guelph Transit had 2,049,794 passengers in 2021.

About the author: Daniel Caudell